Business Insider: Job Losses and Employment Reports Drive Policy

Very good piece over at Business Insider on unemployment as the new indicator.  Jeff Miller’s chart above tells the story.

As John Mauldin says about PIMCO’s top thinker:

Mohamed El-Erian’s thought is that employment is now a leading indicator in the sense that the Fed and other policy makers look at the employment numbers and adjust their policies going forward, influencing the economy of the future.

So we’re now reactive.

And, according to Mauldin, we’re in a scenario in which job gains and job losses have a larger gap than ever before.  The brilliant Jeff Miller’s take on it?  They’ve become uncoupled.

BI has other charts that demonstrate how deeply commercial lending fell – which Mauldin believes is the reason commercial lending fell off the cliff.

If you’re a job seeker, you don’t need me to tell you that every opportunity is important.

If you’re already employed, do whatever you need to do to stay that way – or find your next job and move only at a time that’s right for you.

Mauldin’s Business Insider piece on jobs is here.

Friday Frolic: Rihanna – Disturbia

Do Less More: 3 Ways to Cut Your Work Headache

Stress is a killer.  Sometimes managing people isn’t exactly a picnic.  And you may just want a break.

Here’s the plan.

1. Get bucks in the bank

If you haven’t established a regular savings program, put one in place now.  Save 10% of everything you get.  Yes, take it out of the $25.00 check Aunt Lulu gives you every birthday and Christmas.  It will build over time.

Get it socked away safely.  Don’t look at Tesla stock.  J & J?  No.  Stick with the simple.  If you don’t want it parked in a nearly no interest savings account, consider a CD or look at an index fund.

Don’t touch it.

2.  Start cutting the hours you work

Start by leaving 30 minutes early for a week.  See how it goes.  Keep it up for at least a month.  Assess the situation.

Has anyone said anything to you?  Any eyebrows raised?  No?

Good, keep going.  Add another 15 or 30 minutes.  Again, do it for a month.

Stop working on weekends.  You might start by cutting off email entirely on Saturdays.  Then move to include Sundays.

Work less in the evening after work.  The formula here is similar to leaving work early.  If you’ve set a standard and usually churn out email and projects until 2:00 a.m., cut back half an hour at a time.  The eventual goal?  Eliminate extra evening work entirely.

Somewhere along the line you might want to clue your boss in that you’re not going to be a 24/7 dynamo.  But be careful – you can be sure if you’ve been regularly clocking an 80-hour work week, the news won’t be well received – especially if you’re an attorney, in PR or in advertising.

3.  Look down market

Instead of trying for the corner office, go for a cubicle.  There are many necessary jobs that just pump along – particularly in areas like accounting.  Find them.  If you can see yourself opting out and being an internal auditor, go for it.

Assess your job on a quarterly basis.  Can anyone do it?  What kind of competitive moat have you built for yourself?  Does your job require special knowledge?  How can your expertise protect your earnings?

If you think your job can easily be outsourced from St. Louis to Bangalore, start thinking of how you’ll reinvent yourself.

Set up fall-back plans in case the worst happens.  Having just a plan B isn’t enough – these days, you’ll need to move to a C and D, too.

There’s a Wall Street Journal story on this topic that I recommend highly.  The entire WSJ piece is here.

Avoiding the Interview Fashion Fail

One of my accounting profs started each semester by noting that he was, “…working hard to help students and, yet, each semester, one or two plunged head-long through the safety net.”

This was hard to take seriously.  Coming from a man with a comb over that was so long his head looked like a salt and pepper softy cone with a Cupie Doll cowlick on top, it was just difficult to accept.

So it is in an interview.  If you’re wearing clown shoes that extend three inches beyond your foot, a recruiter may not take you too seriously, unless maybe you’re interviewing for a job at the hot new Rodeo Drive boutique.

Because there’s so little time and so many candidates, hiring managers are especially alert to items that don’t fit with their company or with the business unit they’re hiring for.  Don’t give them a reason up front to turn you down.

It’s amazing this is even still happening, but you can’t believe how many times people miss the boat because of the way they’re dressed.  Planning to go to the beach after the interview?  That’s nice, but save the pink flip-flops for the after party.   Four-inch platforms may be cool, but unless you’re auditioning for a pole dancing job leave them at home.

So many people have tattoos that they shouldn’t be a problem – except they are if you’re trying to get a job in a more conservative company.  At least cover them up until you get clear on the kind of environment you’re going into.  It’s easy to take the band-aid off and reveal the switch blade you had inked on your index finger afterward.

Women should save the cleavage for date night – ditto midriff-baring tops or blouses for any interview except one in the adult film industry.

If you can avoid screaming colors like orange or yellow, that’s probably a win – especially when we’re talking about a suit or a shirt for men.

Likewise with hair.  Got a mohawk?  Best thing to do is cut all your hair the same length.  Avoid glitter gel.  Keep it clean and simple.

I’m sure many people are rolling their eyes about now, but why is it that candidates are still wandering into offices all over the world looking like they’ve just got off a roller-coaster at Disneyland?

Get attention for the right reason – don’t get excluded for something so basic.

Sunday Special: Sailboat Delivery Person

Avast there, me hearties!  If you’ve a hankering for the nautical life and you love the briney deep like I do, maybe being a sailboat delivery person is for the likes of ye.

Make sure you know the difference between port and starboard.  Knowing the main mast from the boom is also a good idea.  Better be able to stand watch, know what to do if becalmed and be handy with sail repairs for this job.

Being able to swim might be a good idea.  Be quick to deliver and make sure you avoid any damage to the ship.

Knowledge of international maritime law and navigation are a plus.

Yo ho!  The sailor’s life for me!

Friday Frolic: Huey Lewis and The News – Workin’ For a Livin’

5 Things Helicopter Parents Need to Know

Are you a helicopter?

Ever zoom into the picture because Junior didn’t get what she or he wanted?

Ever call the principal because Joey missed out on that choir solo?

Ever try and get that B+ on Angelica’s term paper upleveled to an A?

Yes?  Well you’re a helicopter parent – and you’re likely to torpedo your child’s chances at getting hired.

Why?

Because you show up at the interview, and that doesn’t work.

Because you call the hiring manager or HR professional and complain when they don’t give Kai a job offer.

Because the recruiter is hiring one person for one position – not one person and their Dad.

Here are 5 things helicopters need to get – STAT:

1.  Your kid will fail

At some time, Harold isn’t going to make it.  Maybe it’s on a date.  Could be a job interview.  It might even be that he’ll get passed over for a promotion.

Your kid is going to make mistakes.  He’s not the best thing since sliced bread.  He’s a human being struggling to do the best he knows how.  Every time you take that away from him, you help make him a little less capable, a little more self-involved, and a lot less desirable to a recruiter, hiring manager or the HR pro whose time was wasted interviewing Harold.

You’ll be a real parent when you can let him fall on his face and pick himself up.  Get a clue – stop meddling.

2.  Aid independence, not dependence

So, you ignored me and showed up at the interview with Aiden.  I told you not to do it, but you plunged head long through the safety net and took him with you.

It’s not OK for you to show up at any interview of any type – unless it’s for a family gym or country club membership.  You shouldn’t even drive Aiden to an interview.  Serious.  If he can’t make his way, he’s already too incapable for even a janitorial job.

This is all about him – not about you.  Stay at home, have a cup of coffee, and chill.  He can call you when he’s out of the interview.

3.  Your input during salary negotiations – a total non-starter

Foot inserted firmly in mouth, you still managed to mumble that the starting salary we offered was inadequate.  And you pitched the need for more vacation time so Kelsey could go to Hemet with you for the family reunion and see Granny Hokes.

I’ve got nothing against Granny – she’s probably, as you described her, ‘a real hoot after a few snorts of Wild Turkey.’  It’s you I’ve got a problem with.  I’m a hiring manager.  I’ve got a budget for the position.  Kelsey said the offer was fine.

Then you called.  Seriously – did you think Mom on the line would be a plus.  Kelsey?  We’re passing.  I was just too afraid of what you’d be like on a day-to-day basis.  And the fact that Kelsey couldn’t manage you?  Not a good sign.

We hire adults.  Your behavior tells me your kid isn’t one – and neither are you.

4.  Stop pushing

I’ve got a CEO who likes to micro-manage me.  I don’t need you doing it too.

The two phone calls you made this week aren’t pushing me in Darius’ direction.  In fact, you just put him out of the running.

Sit back and relax.  He’ll either get the next job or not.  More likely not if you continue making those phone calls.

And no, it wasn’t a good idea to offer me season tickets to the S.F. Giants.  It made me cringe.

5.  Come pick up the Beemer – it’s at the curb with the keys in the ignition

I always appreciate thank you notes.  You know, most of the time people just don’t send them any more.

You were pretty innovative, having Brittany put hers onto the key ring.  But no, I can’t accept the BMW.

And no, I’m not hiring her.  Thanks but no thanks.

A final word before takeoff

While your kid is probably outstanding, he or she won’t be perceived that way if you’re in the picture.

Whatever you may have done in the past, it won’t work this time.

Just. Stop. It.

Let them go.  Trust me, they’ll be fine without you.

Photo courtesy of Mike Baird.

3 Ways to Beat The Double Dip Recession

Word has it that a second dip is coming at us.

What to do?

1.  Target recession-proof industries

What things or services do people always need?  Food comes to mind.  Not that people will be dining at the Ritz, but everyone needs food.  Whether you’re shopping at the Piggy Market in Aptos or Whole Foods in L.A., the grocery business will continue on.  Small margins and people may be downscaling their basket, but they’ll buy.

Hairdresser or barber.  Hair doesn’t stop growing.  Dental technician.  My sources tell me people are getting their teeth cleaned more frequently to avoid dental bills.

All things DIY.  Purchases of home and garden repair items should be strong – not upscale, make-your-home-a-mansion projects.  People will be going for basics like getting their loppers sharpened or buying a second hose.

Low-end clothing.  Think Ross.  Kohl.  The Rack.  These are all places that will experience a surge – particularly during the holidays.  Want to line up a holiday job?  Start thinking about it now and get your face and resume in front of the companies you’re most interested in.

Babies, birthdays, graduations, weddings, funerals.  All of these are rites of passage.  People can put off spending or ratchet back, but buy they will.

School.  In a recession, people tend to flock to education.   Don’t get caught in the private for-profit education mill.  It doesn’t pay.  Go to a community college or state college or university.  Can’t pass the entrance exam?  Try for a night class or two.  Then reapply.  If you have to, look up the professor during office hours and ask for their permission to get into the class.  Before you apply for anything, make sure there are jobs waiting for whatever it is that you’re studying.  We’re not likely to see a huge need for political science majors.  If you’re interested in law, have a clear path to employment before you purchase software that will produce pleading paper.

2.  Be practical

While the services I mentioned above are ever-green, this is not the time to start a car wash or house cleaning business.

With things tightening up again, no one is likely to pay for services they can do themselves.  Yes, they won’t do it as well as you might.  But missing a spot on a car window isn’t a life or death item that compels people to open their wallets.

Got an apricot tree?  Sell apricots.  Have a hobby people have admired?  Sell the items online.  Know someone who has no time but would pay for a home-cooked meal?  Provide it.

3.  Tighten up

Make sure every expense is needed.  Cut your bills.  If you haven’t done it before, review your credit card debt.  Jettison it now.  Cut your cards up.  Spend only what you have.

Eat less meat.  Eat more vegetables and fruit – whether they’re organic or not.

If you’re an executive, cut back on the dry cleaning.  Shine your shoes yourself.  Have only one drink with friends at the bar after work.  Make the second soda water with lime.

Here’s an important chart and article from Business Insider’s John Hussman – signs point to a double dip.  Be prepared.

Photo courtesy of QuintanaRoo.

Sunday Special: Tree Surgeon

A tree surgeon works in the great outdoors – cutting down large trees like this beech requires absolute focus and total attention to safety.

Make sure you know about various types of trees – their strength, sappiness, type of wood and the diseases each can get.  Hard hat, face shield, leather safety belt, tree climbing spikes, ropes and ear protectors are the basic safety equipment you’ll be using.

Candidates must possess superior upper body strength and the ability to heft extra large chain saws.  Should have served several years as an apprentice.  Must be able to put together a dismantling plan that will eliminate the tree without harming people or buildings.

Pay is low unless you own your own company.  If you expect to be successful, make sure fear of heights isn’t an issue.  Good medical insurance is required – don’t sign on without it.

Friday Frolic: Shakira – This Time for Africa